Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.659334 2.193488 2.918459 4.000892 5.623975 8.050347e+00 1.212331e+01
2025-01-12 1.030114 1.535252 2.338009 3.782880 6.504953 1.186760e+01 2.469759e+01
2025-01-19 0.671442 1.093637 1.850543 3.436427 7.085351 1.646071e+01 4.957973e+01
2025-01-26 0.495098 0.874786 1.637349 3.495907 8.790893 2.740651e+01 1.405013e+02
2025-02-02 0.397574 0.759958 1.574723 3.902422 12.356307 5.681710e+01 7.149927e+02
2025-02-09 0.332177 0.683728 1.565356 4.529460 18.656435 1.446298e+02 1.141294e+04
2025-02-16 0.269157 0.587188 1.458183 4.821566 25.463909 3.585704e+02 4.659729e+06
2025-02-23 0.212266 0.483117 1.275097 4.680668 30.533576 7.963630e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 0.167381 0.393563 1.089616 4.354408 34.136328 1.707028e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 0.143283 0.351592 1.037833 4.667287 48.218044 8.755644e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.123279 0.314022 0.981729 4.929523 67.545348 9.736077e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 0.108747 0.287655 0.954236 5.394240 103.325500 1.244619e+08 NaN
2025-03-30 0.095076 0.260788 0.917074 5.854068 164.660300 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.079926 0.223909 0.815051 5.604648 204.336613 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.066721 0.189601 0.706635 5.118108 226.486939 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.058738 0.171061 0.664270 5.278374 340.071715 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.053867 0.162071 0.665288 6.020340 711.097532 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.050259 0.156557 0.682704 7.164847 1969.556606 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.045650 0.145613 0.662256 7.739182 4556.415015 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.040412 0.130547 0.607366 7.533655 7305.859389 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.035493 0.115473 0.544179 6.985063 9319.224599 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032801 0.108940 0.533064 7.580583 31856.175627 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.030281 0.102400 0.518008 8.088507 144499.443531 NaN NaN